💵 Trump Tariff: Shit Show

The Reality of Tariffs

Nearly $6 trillion was wiped from markets in 2 days.
Tariffs’ Impact: It has only lasting influence on market in a healthy economy(Which we don’t have).
Current Economy: Complex web of fiscal policies, not a healthy economy.
Currency Debasement: In our economy value of currency is being steadily eroded.
Hence tariff threats are negotiation tactic to get better deals with other countries.

Formula for “reciprocal” tariffs doesn’t consider a country’s tariffs at all, it just uses a country’s trade balance and assumes any imbalance is the result of a trade barrier….. Economist crying in corner
English translation of formula :
- Trade Deficit with other country * 100 / US Imports from other country
- Trade Deficit with other country = (US Exports to other country – US Imports from other country)
- (4 × 0.25) = 1
Example Calculation for China :

Wait until the EU also retaliates and then Trump retaliates against retaliations…
Yes this was just the first step.
The shakeout continues until the tariffs are settled.
Could be months….. I believe Trump wants to get market sentiment positive again by late fall.
Otherwise he’s at risk of losing seats in the 2026 midterm elections.
So the turbulence could go for a few months more.

Government can cut spending and reallocate funds such as the military, federal programs, etc.
But that wouldn’t work either.
- Military = $900B
- Social Security = 1.4T
- Medicaid and other health insurance programs = $1.6T
Even if I tally up all government expenditures, it still doesn’t pay off the debt.

The Federal Reserve will perform quantitative easing.
Which is a fancy-pants way of saying they’ll print money out of thin air.
This money will be used to purchase bonds from the US Treasury.
This directly injects cash into the financial system.
If the Fed creates $9.2 trillion, it’s practically impossible for stocks not to rise.

The problem with refinancing at new rates is that interest rates are relatively high right now.
And the US is already paying ~$1.2T in yearly interest.
If we refinance $9.2T at current rates, that $1.2T in yearly interest would soar. Not good.

Fed will cut interest rates leading to more lending.
Lending with low interest is how smaller banks effectively create money.
The Short term PLAN
- Crash market on purpose
- Pressure FED to bring interest rates below 3% (Current 4.50%)
- Refinance debt ($9.2T)
- Quantitative easing (Print Money)
- Set 10% tariffs hard cap for other countries (Current 50% Reciprocal tariff)
- Market strong
- Crypto strong
- America is back humming on to an age of prosperity
So no matter what happens, more money will be printed. Which means your assets will rise.

If you’re wondering when a genuine bear market could take place….
The most likely answer is 2026.
We live in a global economy with 4-year debt cycles.
The year of quantitative tightening and rate hikes worldwide is most likely 2026.
Until then, enjoy this monumental buying opportunity.

If your panicking, and thinking “what do I do?” Chances are you:
- 1. Don’t have an emergency fund.
- 2. Overexposed to equity (wrong asset allocation).
- 3. Don’t have a plan.
- 4. Don’t know what you are invested in.
It’s okay if that’s the case, but you need to start re-evaluating and addressing it.