🚗UBER: Its a Verb - Analyz(e)dge

TLDR;

From money loosing to free cash flow of $2.1B(+133% YoY)
Good growth in existing mature markets.
Expansion in new markets (Japan, Spain, Argentina, Germany, South Korea, Italy)
Uber has smart strategic partnerships with its competitors.
Uber owns a 27.5% stake in Grab (Southeast Asian Uber)
If Waymo and Tesla dominate the US market, they might not need Uber as a platform.
Good short term trade with target of $74.(23.3% Upside)

Ride-hailing Market Share (US): Uber has a 77% market share, while Lyft has 23%.
Food Delivery Market Share (US): Uber Eats has a 24% market share, while DoorDash leads with 65%.
Global Ride-hailing Market Share: Uber’s global market share is around 68%, with other players like Didi Chuxing, Grab, and Bolt making up the rest.

Uber is well-positioned to be enabler of the AV revolution.
Partnerships with AV players to offer autonomous rides through the Uber app.
14 AV partnerships, including Waymo, Cruise, and Avride and expanded global AV offering.
Notable deals with Waymo and Cruise to deploy autonomous vehicles on the Uber platform.

Uber’s platform and network effects provide a significant moat.
Limited responsibilities but earns billions through partnerships.
Highly recognized platform with 150+ million users.
Potential to improve take rate with the push into AVs.
Significant portions of revenue will still go to Uber, even with AV partnerships.

Waymo Partnership: Uber to offer driverless Waymo robotaxis in Austin and Atlanta from 2025, exclusively via the Uber app.
Cruise (GM) Partnership: Uber and Cruise to launch commercial AV service in 2025, following a fatal accident in San Francisco.
Wayve Partnership: Uber partners with British start-up Wayve to develop AI technology for autonomous driving.
BYD Partnership: Uber and BYD to offer autonomous-capable vehicles on the Uber platform, potentially competing with Tesla’s robo taxi fleet.

Waymo (Alphabet subsidiary): Strong technical expertise, large-scale testing, and partnerships with automakers pose a significant threat to Uber’s robotaxi ambitions.
Tesla: Autonomous taxi network plans, large user base, and vertical integration of autonomous technology pose a competitive risk to Uber.
Cruise (GM subsidiary): Strong backing from GM, significant investment in autonomous technology, and partnerships with other companies pose a threat to Uber’s robotaxi plans.
Argo AI (backed by Ford and VW): Significant investment in autonomous technology, partnerships with major automakers, and potential to partner with other ride-hailing companies pose a competitive risk.

Partnership Risks:

Dependency on Partners: Uber’s robotaxi plans rely on partnerships with autonomous technology companies, which poses a risk if these partnerships are unsuccessful or terminated.
GM owned Cruise: GM announced a refocus of its autonomous driving development on personal vehicles, which led to a decline in Uber’s stock price.
Waymo Expansion: In Mami Waymo partnered with Moove for fleet management which was seen as setback for Uber.
Uber-Moove Partnership: Uber is a strategic partner of Moove via two board seats, and provides its ERP system to Moove for fleet management which indirectly put Waymo as partner of Uber.

Q3 2029 UBER SHARE PRICE = 41.96 * (1.17)^5 * 0.09 * 25.50 / [2.11 * (0.95)^5] = $91.81
Using discount rate for UBER as 6%.

CURRENT SHARE PRICE: $59.93
DISCOUNT RATE: 6%
FAIR VALUE: $91.81 / (1.06)^5 = $73.91
POTENTIAL UPSIDE: (($73.91 – $59.93) / $59.93) × 100% = 23.3%
EXPECTED RETURNS: ((($91.81 / $59.93)^(1/5)) – 1) × 100% ≈ 9%/year
DIVIDEND YIELD: NA
MY RATING
Short Term (6-12M) : BUY ✅ | Accumulate only on red days.
Long Term (3-5Y) : HOLD 🟡 | To wait for partnerships resilience and revenue outcome once its live in 2025